ReadWriteWeb 2010 年網路發展預測 (下)

繼續昨天ReadWriteWeb針對2010年網路預測的文章，以下是剩下的26則預測項目。

• AR: Geo-locational games and AR will come together in 2010. We're going to see strange behavior from those playing zombie shooter games on their commutes.

簡譯：以地理和AR(Augmented Reality；請見：虛擬與現實的結合：Argumented Reality初探)為主的遊戲將會在2010年整合。

心得：我期待看到附帶3D眼鏡的遊戲推出！

• Agree with Sarah: Netbooks and gadgets like the PsiXpda are going to gain ground.

簡譯：Netbook和相關的裝置會持續發熱。

心得：隨處可上網的需求只會越來越高漲。

• Mobile Music: Offline music caching will be expected of all streaming music apps.

簡譯：線上音樂將會支援暫存功能。

心得：線上音樂也是一塊值得發展，但是卻還沒有殺手級應用的市場。

• The browser really will be the new OS.

簡譯：瀏覽器將會是最新的作業系統。

心得：我期待這樣突破性產品在2010年能夠有成熟的應用產生。

• Payment Systems: Between Square, PayPal X and advances in Internet TV, we're going to see payment options integrated in unlikely places.

簡譯：帳單支付系統：隨著Square、Paypal X 和網路電視的發展，我們會看到支付系統與想像不到的服務整合。

心得：如果能夠真的讓使用者完全安心的在線上付款，那商機無限。

• Cloud computing will go through a shake out. There are just too many companies out there for the market to sustain. The big players will go on a buying spree. The consolidation will deeply affect users. Some companies will fold overnight. Users will lose access to their data, leading to a whole new wave of skepticism about cloud computing. But it won't be enough to slow down the move to cloud computing. More companies will consider the security risks as less of a factor, compared to the cost benefits and potential for innovation. Cloud computing technology will become more of a commodity. The business applications for cloud computing will take center stage.

簡譯：投入雲端運算的公司將會大洗牌。目前有太多的公司在這個市場中，將會進入併購整合階段。同時，雲端運算會進入商品階段，企業開始建置雲端應用。

心得：是G開頭的那家公司又要併購別人了嗎？

• The big players will come back strong. IBM, SAP and Microsoft will innovate just enough to show big gains with customers.

簡譯：大型企業，例如IBM、SAP和微軟，會重新開始進行創新活動並且贏回顧客。

心得：只要有創新活動都是好事情。

• Consumer-based social networks will make big efforts to gain wider access to the enterprise, as more companies seek to open up to the social Web. The information architecture of social networks will change to accommodate the greater degrees of control that the enterprise requires. This will bring on the rise of "social middleware" - services that act as a layer between social networks and the enterprise.

簡譯：消費型社交服務將會努力獲得企業的需求，越來越多的公司開始對社交服務採取開放的態度。企業對於社交網路服務的控制會有大幅增進，因而造成【社交中介服務(介於社交服務與企業之間的服務媒介)】的興起。

心得：新的一年我相信利用社交網路服務的企業會越來越多，之間的整合也會更加成熟。

• A new breed of social networks will emerge that act as one-stop shops for applications and services. These will look more like marketplaces than social hubs for conversations around the proverbial virtual water cooler. SaaS leaders will face off for this growing market.

簡譯：會有新的社交網站服務成為應用程式和服務的【一站式商店(可以在此購足各種商品)】。提供SaaS服務的企業將會在此一決高下。

心得：心得同上，社交網路服務和企業整合會從磨合期進入到快速發展期。

• iPhone, Android or the Blackberry? I expect the Android to be the talk of the enterprise, especially if the Google Phone does make it to market. Such a phone would eliminate carrier costs and break down walled gardens that have limited application development.

簡譯：選擇iPhone、Android還是黑莓機？預計Android將會是企業間討論的話題，特別是Google 手機已上市，有助於打破營運成本、打破應用軟體開發的障壁。

心得：智慧型手機三強鼎立的局面似乎慢慢成形。

• Facebook will go public and the IPO will be a huge financial success.

簡譯：Facebook會公開上市並且得到得到巨大的成功。

心得：Facebook上市之後會對其服務產生什麼影響呢？值得持續關注。

• Hyperlocal advertising will heat up, delivering another nail in the traditional newspaper industry's coffin. (Very similar to one of my 2008 predictions, but this time focused on the advertising aspects.) Specifically, it will be more common for a local establishment to pay marketing dollars to Yelp or FourSquare, for example, then their local newspaper.

簡譯：地區型廣告開始興起，同時再度加速報業的衰亡(同於2008年的預測，不過今年關注在廣告部分)。具體來說，花在地區型廣告的行銷資金將會更常見。

心得：不只是廣告，以地區為基礎的各項服務絕對會是重點發展項目。

• Apple will release an "iTablet" and the world will be a better place for it. OK, more accurately we'll all think the world is a better place for it.

簡譯：Apple公司將會推出iTable，我們認為這會讓世界更美好。

心得：不知道微軟和Apple哪一個會先推出這樣的產品？

• Agree with Jolie regarding "the death of the login." I'm hoping for open distributed alternatives along with Facebook and a handful of others.

簡譯：同意Jolie【登入系統將邁入死亡】的觀點。我希望能夠有整合Facebook和其他服務的選擇。

心得：登入系統的整合與變革是值得挑戰的。

• Between Boxee's continued development and a new AppleTV (hopefully synched with their iTablet), it will become much more common to enjoy the Internet on a TV.

簡譯：隨著Boxee和AppleTV的發展，電視上網將會更加普及。讓我們享受在電視上網的樂趣！

心得：我認為物聯網也許可以從電視開始發展，畢竟這是比較可以想像和成熟的產品。

• Skype becomes increasingly pervasive, as the younger generations force their parents to get online, and consumers find new and interesting ways to cut costs and save money.

簡譯：隨著新一代父母親上網比例的增加，Skype將會更加普及，同時會有更多有趣減省成本的方式。

心得：目前網路電話除了Skype之外，好像沒有什麼強力的競爭者？

• Software as service becomes ever more popular, as businesses and governments choose to focus on their core business and realize the benefits of lightweight technologies in the cloud - including rapid deployment and the low cost of switching.

簡譯：由於企業和政府都開始專心致力於自己的核心業務，同時體會到雲端運算的好處，【軟體即服務(Service as Service；SaaS)】將變得更加普及。

心得：又是一個雲端技術的趨勢預測，好吧。

• The online user experience has a renaissance, as web browsers and hardware become more sophisticated and designers and developers take advantage of that.

簡譯：瀏覽器和硬體越來越複雜，使得線上用戶體驗重新復甦，網頁設計和開發者可以善加利用這一點來進行開發。

心得：使用者體驗絕對是一個重點發展項目。

• The growth of Internet of Things continues, RFID tags in everything. The initial bugs will make funny things happen all around us.

簡譯：物聯網(Internet of Things)將持續成長，RFID標籤更加普及。

心得：物聯網是趨勢，不過沒有這麼快變成主流。

• iPhones and other smartphones become the purchasing tool of choice.

簡譯：iPhone和其他智慧型手機變成購物的工具。

心得：要考慮到行動上網、安全、使用者習慣等相關問題。

• Consumers bypass carriers and create open wifi networks for all (which is already happening but not en mass).

簡譯：消費者將跳過營運商，自行建立一個開放的wifi無線上網環境(事實上已經存在，但是尚未普及)。

心得：這個好！我期待開放式的全面無線上網環境！

• Backlash against the App Store causes more and more developers to defect to Android and competing platforms.

簡譯：越來越多人轉而投入Android和其他競爭者的應用程式開發陣營。

心得：沒有特別的心得。

• Google Chrome's market share increases at Firefox's expense. Internet Explorer continues to lose ground as more rich, HTML5-aware Web apps spring up on the scene.

簡譯：Google Chrome的市佔率開始增加，相反的Firefox開始下降。隨著使用HTML 5 相關的網路應用服務開始增加，IE的佔有率持續下降。

心得：Google Chrome市佔率會持率上升，不過有瓶頸，我不認為他會超過Firefox。

• Opera begins to struggle, as WebKit becomes the rendering engine of choice on mobile devices.

簡譯：Opera陷入麻煩掙扎中，由於WebKit成為行動裝置上網引擎的選擇。

心得：沒有特別心得。

• Social analytics features explode onto the scene in 2010. Twitter opens Pro accounts, including analytics and an API to access them. Google strikes a deal to integrate Twitter analytics with its Google Analytics product.

簡譯：社交服務分析的功能在2010年開始爆炸成長。Twitter推出Pro帳號，同時提供分析和API來存取這些特殊帳戶。Google Analytics將整合來自Twitter的分析數據。

心得：分析使用者在社交網路上的活動、行為和相關數據絕對是再重要不過了，我期待Google Analytics與Twitter或其他社交網路服務之間的資料整合。

以上就是ReadWriteWeb對於2010年的網路發展預測，不知道你有什麼心得感想，歡迎分享 :)

ReadWriteWeb 2010 年網路發展預測 (上)